ASIO Raises Terror Threat To “Probable”
From an ABC News item on 05 August, 2024, headed ASIO lifts terror threat level to ‘probable’ amid heightened tensions over war in Gaza
The item started with a televised statement from PM Anthony Albanese in which he said:
I want to reassure Australians “probable” does not mean “inevitable,” and it does not mean there is intelligence about an imminent threat or danger.
But the advice we have received is that Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies.
To be clear, this is the same threat level that was in place in Australia for more than 8 years before it was lowered in November of 2022.
My government respects our intelligence agencies, we listen to their advice and we act on their advice and that is what we are doing today.
Domestic Terror Threat Levels
Before jumping into the story, it’s worth reflecting on how ASIO grades the different threat levels.
There are 5 different levels: Not Expected, Possible, Probable, Expected and Certain. “Probable” sits comfortably in the middle, although when considering that “probable” means more likely than not, perhaps “comfortably” is not a good descriptor. The majority of levels can generate uncertainty, anxiety and alarm.
The threat level in the old four-tiered system was listed as High. But in 2015, an extra tier was added and the tiers were re-named. The initial listing was “Probable,” but the chance of attack in Australia had not changed. It does sound better than “High,” though.
What Is Driving The Change To The Terror Threat Level?
ASIO’s director-general Mike Burgess, the report claims, noted the conflict in Gaza was not the “cause” for raising the terror level, though it had been a “significant driver.”
According to the report, Mr Burgess said agencies had disrupted eight incidents in just the last four months that involved alleged terrorism or were investigated as potential acts of terrorism.
Which agencies? is the first question that jumps to my mind. ASIO? Police? Family Welfare? Considering those cases involved people aged from 14 to 21 years of age, who could have been simply members of roaming gangs or individuals drunk and disorderly, or intent on thievery, what was the result of the investigations into those incidents? In other words, is there any basis to the allegations that terrorism was involved? I’m not suggesting there isn’t; just questioning it.
Why Has The Threat Level Been Raised?
Burgess did say that that raising the threat did not mean ASIO had intelligence about plans of a current attack or expectations of an imminent attack.
On what basis, then, has the threat level been raised?
Bear in mind that the threat level was “probable” for 8 years. This includes right through the lockdown periods, when gatherings and travel anywhere by anyone was restricted – sometimes draconian restrictions – including interstate travel and entering from overseas. Does ASIO really need more than two years to assess a change in threat level and respond to it? And if it does, what does that say about ASIO?
Less than two years after it was reduced, it had been raised again.
What Caused The Change To The Threat Level?
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has been constantly elevating in intensity for nearly a year. If this is a “significant driver,” then why the delay in raising the threat? Attacks on Israel from Hezbollah have been ongoing for a similar period. Again, how much time does ASIO need to assess a change in threat level and respond to it? And what does that say about ASIO? Bear in mind that the ASIO head had just told us about disrupting eight incidents in “just the last four months.” So they must consider that time frame relevant.
ASIO – “We Don’t Have Any Intelligence”
And if Gaza is only a driver, not the cause, then what, exactly, is the cause? Or causes? Maybe they feel it in their water, or in their bones, or have a gut feeling. Maybe it’s something esoteric, because it’s not – we are assured – anything to do with intelligence information.
What Does The Raised Terror Threat Level Mean?
What does this raised threat level mean, in practical terms? Let’s re-visit Albanese’s statements about this and I’ll explain them.
What he said: I want to reassure Australians “probable” does not mean “inevitable,” and it does not mean there is intelligence about an imminent threat or danger.
What he means: We’re probably going to have a terror attack, but rest assured it’s not definite. And I’m not saying ASIO have any actual knowledge about this.
What he said: But the advice we have received is that Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies.
What he means: There are more and different extremists everywhere we turn, but all of us have to suck up the result of the diversity and inclusivity agenda we’ve been pushing on you. It would be un-Australian not to.
What you heard: Blah, blah, blah, gobbledegook.
What you should realise: This is poli-speak that takes your mind off what he said previously while you try to work out what he’s just said.
What he said: To be clear
What he means: Let me confuse you.
What he said: this is the same threat level that was in place in Australia for more than 8 years before it was lowered in November of 2022.
What he means: We decided to downgrade the threat level because it wasn’t necessary. We had the pandemic we were using to scare you and we wanted to be able to increase the terror threat at a later time when you got over that fear. That time is now.
What he really means: It’s arbitrary and it means nothing.
What he said: My government respects our intelligence agencies, we listen to their advice and we act on their advice
What he means: Me and ASIO are working together on a set play that has been running for years.
What he said: we act on their advice and that is what we are doing today.
What he means: The government action is to let you know what they’ve done, but not why. They haven’t told us that.
So what does this raised threat level mean, in practical terms? You work it out. My guess is it’s just psy-ops as normal.
Don’t forget what The Who sang in 1971.